Thursday, September 11, 2008

Live in Just over TEN MINUTES!

Folks, Brian Kapur and I will be going on the air in just about ten minutes. Please listen in, today and every Thursday at five... here's a simple phrase to remember it by... Live at Five! Here's your link guys:

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

New Desk Setup!

Wow, this makes me feel much more like I'm at home. At home, I have a desk setup where i can look out the window because i dont have the awkward shelves on top of them. But at Maryland, I had the shelves there and was facing the wall. But now I can see something else besides my boring old wall. The shelves have been removed and I am now facing the door. I can look outside and see people! But nobody comes in and talks any. I'm going to put up a sign encouraging people to be friendly. Also, my wall is blank. Pictures are necessary.

Oh and by the way, Ike is going to smack the Texas coast on Saturday. Going to take a break from this storm for a bit.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

5pm Sat: Hanna Update

Wow... before I could even get time to put another update in, the storm exited the area with much less bite than the bark that they were calling for before it hit. Winds only gusted to 34 mph, which is 5 below the lower bound of Tropical Storm force. Sustained winds didn't pass 20 mph... which was a lot better than I expected. I was thinking that we could get close to sustained 40, but gusts didn't even approach that.

I'll put up my full post mortem tomorrow, including grading my forecast. TS Warnings do continue, so the winds will be decent. They could actually be stronger now than while it was raining. All in all, it was a pretty weak storm. Now our attention turns to Ike, which could make Mike Tidwell say I told you so. Louisiana had better watch out for this one. I'll be keeping an eye on that. Next update will be tomorrow's post mortem on Tropical Storm Hanna. That's all for today.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

11 pm Thu: TS Hanna Update

There you can see it. The track has shifted west over the past few hours, and I'm still sticking with my guns... Charleston, SC will be the landfall point. I might have to revise that as things change. Tropical Storm Watch is still out... and I think this thing rolls up the I-95 corridor. The NHC is underplaying the 25% chance of TS winds in the DC area, because the storm will be closer and it is such a big storm. Those chances will rise tomorrow as the storm approaches the coast. Landfall tomorrow evening. Then we have to watch the effects approach the DC area. Live blogging will take place with embedded radars and what not. This is going to be a fun storm to follow, and it should be a rather quick blow. Get ready guys -- this is our big storm for now.

Next update will be post 8 am advisory... maybe holding off til post 11 am.

5 pm Thurs: Hanna Update

We're still at Tropical Storm intensity, but only just. And the DC area is just to the left of dead center in the cone. And there's going to be impacts. We're talking about winds 40-60 mph if not more... and heavy rains, on the order of 3-6 inches. On this side of the storm, tornadoes probably won't happen with any thunderstorms. But we'll have to keep an eye on that.

We're also under a Tropical Storm Watch. That means Tropical Storm force winds could be possible in 36 hours or less. There will have to be an eye kept on that as well. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued in case the rain gets really heavy. Again, I'm not letting any guard down at this point. We're in the cone, so we need to watch out. Anyone outside the cone but nearby needs to keep an eye out too. Next update will be after the 8 or 11 pm advisory, whichever one warrants an update.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

11 am Wed: Hanna Update

The gods must be crazy! This thing is going everywhere, and I think a New Jersey driver must be behind it. Anyway, it's going all the heck over, and until the shear relaxes, we won't really know where it's going from here. I still think a landfall in South Carolina, racing northward through NC and VA and off into the Northeast. I-95 is going to get some high winds and much needed rain. The reliable models still follow yesterday's path, and I'm sticking with them. I think we're going to know a lot more after the 2 pm and 5 pm advisories today, once this thing starts moving again. It's moving north at 6 mph, and should start moving towards the northwest again and picking up its speed... moving away from the area of high wind shear... and strengthening. We should be at hurricane strength again tomorrow or Friday. All eyes should be on Hanna all over the Southeast coast. Keep it tuned here, and the next update will be after the 2 or 5 pm advisory.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

11 pm Tue: Hanna Update

Here's your 11 pm update... we could be talking about a hurricane again on Wednesday or Thursday, and by then it will be moving through the central and northern Bahamas. Then it starts to accelerate, turn more to the north and make a landfall on the Southeast Coast probably on Friday. From there, it makes an impact on our area for late in the week and into the early part of the weekend. How much of an impact is still uncertain at this point... but should become more known in a day or two.

However, what we do know, or think we know, is from the 120 hours starting at 8 pm this evening, there is a 20-30% chance of tropical storm winds affecting our area through 8 pm Sunday. Then there's the possibility of (as of now) 5-6" of rain accompanying it. So it'll be important to keep a very close eye on this system. Next update is most likely going to be after the 8 am advisory tomorrow morning... but if I'm still up around 2 then I'll post one then. That's all for now.

5 pm Tue: Hanna Update

Okay it's a bit after the 5pm advisory, but now all the graphics have been updated by the Weather Channel. We still don't know exactly the full effects of this storm. Look at how wide the cone is. By Saturday afternoon, it could either be in the Ohio Valley weakened because of how much time it has spent over land, east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, or somewhere in between. What a spread. It should start heading to the northwest sometime today, and that should mean a better forecast confidence. My guess is a hit in South Carolina... that means right down the center of the cone... but the reason I'm saying that is because I've looked at the models, and it appears to be heading in that direction. I think it then goes through North Carolina and rips right through the center of Virginia. As for effects on us... it's too early to tell. But if history continues to be an example, it could be pretty decent. I'll keep everyone posted, and will have an update later this evening... probably after the 8 and/or 11 pm advisories.

11 am Hanna Update

Here's the very latest with now Tropical Storm Hanna. It weakened slightly overnight, meaning it may not hit the Southeast Coast with as much strength as previously thought. However, it looks like we're still going to feel some impacts. Saturday looks like the most likely day for the most impacts, as you can see by the projected path on your right, which was updated as of 11 am today.

I don't know what the full effects of this storm may be, considering it's still a few days out, but there's a 10-20% chance that we could see some TS strength winds with this system. Those chances could increase as it approaches a landfall sometime on Friday. Exact landfall is still unknown, but it could hit anywhere between Florida and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. I'll be tracking this storm throughout the day, and the next update will likely be after the 5 pm advisory... due to classes I probably won't be near a computer when the 2 pm one comes out. That's all for now.

Hanna Headed Toward Us?

Well apparently we could be under the gun by the end of the week... from Hurricane Hanna, which is currently hitting the Bahamas. As of the 11 pm advisory and projected path, we are officially in the "cone". What I'm hearing is there could be some decent rains and some fairly decent winds.

Every advisory (except for probably the 2 am and 5 am ones), I'll be updating on this storm, and highlighting the threats that we could see. I'm also hearing we could see close to 5 or 6 inches of rain, as well as some 35 to 40 mph winds... SUSTAINED. So we will see what happens, as this is a pretty decent threat to be a weekend spoiler. Hey, at the beginning of the year, the experts said the East Coast has gotten fairly lucky over the past few years... looks like things might be changing by the end of the week.

I'll post another update before class tomorrow. Probably after the 8 or 11 am advisory. That's all for tonight.